Old Dominion at Louisiana Tech

Old Dominion is 2-5 and scores 17.7 points per game, 130th in FBS. Louisiana Tech is 4-2 and coming off a 24-0 win at ULM. The Monarchs' defense is what keeps them in games. It is third in the Sun Belt in total defense at 335.7 yards per game, and for the third time this season, it held an opponent under 300 yards. Appalachian State went 1-of-13 on third down in a 10-3 Old Dominion win on October 10, and the Monarchs lead the conference in opponent third-down conversions. Old Dominion's last two games were decided by seven and eight points, the second a 23-15 loss to Georgia Southern. Louisiana Tech turns red zone trips into points 76% of the time, 118th in FBS. Drives that reach scoring range do not always finish for the Bulldogs. Louisiana Tech also has a +5 turnover margin, 15th nationally, while Old Dominion sits at -3. I weigh that gap heavily, because the Monarchs need the defense to play this clean. At a plus price, we only need Old Dominion to cash this 47.8% of the time to break even. With a defense that holds teams under 300 yards and a Bulldogs offense that stalls inside the 20, I'm taking Old Dominion on the spread Saturday.