Northwestern at Michigan State

I had the OVER when Illinois visited Michigan State last Saturday, and it finished 38-37 in overtime. That was Michigan State’s fourth straight loss, after defeats by 17 to Notre Dame, 18 to Nebraska, and 28 at Wisconsin. Michigan State is 2-4 and scores 21.3 points per game, 112th among the 138 FBS teams. It gains 312 yards per game and allows 340, and it has lost the ball seven times in six games while taking it away three. Northwestern is 4-1 and beat Ball State 45-14 last Saturday on 436 yards. It scores 35.4 points per game (37th) and allows 16.2 (tied for 22nd). It gains 437 yards per game and allows 381, and it has taken the ball away eight times while losing it twice. Its one loss was 29-23 at Indiana, and its wins include 34-13 over Penn State and 41-7 over Colorado. Michigan State has scored 13 or fewer in three of its last four games, which puts me on Northwestern to cover at noon Saturday.