Nevada at Western Kentucky

Nevada's ground attack is very effective behind mobile QB Chubba Purdy (team-leading 216 rushing yards) and RB Herschel Walker (team-leading 216 rushing yards). Both average 4.9 yards per carry, while the team averages 4.8 per carry with 550 rushing yards in three games. The defense has allowed 17 and 14 points in the last two games. Last season, they upset Troy (28-26) as a +7 dog and Oregon State (42-37) as an underdog, while losing at Boise State (28-21) as a +23.5 dog, at San Jose State (35-31) at +7.5, and to SMU (29-24) as a +28 underdog. Western Kentucky has lost four of its last seven, including a 12-7 defeat at home to Louisiana Tech as a double-digit favorite. They come off a 45-21 loss to Toledo, allowing 508 yards (307 rushing). The ground game is averaging just 3.4 yards per carry, after averaging 3.5 in 2024. The wagering value is on the visitors to pull the upset. Play Nevada on the moneyline.