Nebraska at Illinois

Nebraska scored 17 against Indiana, 14 at Oregon and 10 against Washington, and I count 37, 31 and 27 combined points in those three losses. The Huskers scored 49, 56, 34, 31 and 48 in the five wins that opened the season, against Ohio, Bowling Green, North Dakota, Michigan State and Maryland. That stretch is where their 32.4 points a game comes from. The defense has allowed 15.6 a game, 14th among 138 FBS teams. The offense holds the ball for 32:50 a game, 14th, while Illinois ranks 100th at 28:57. That leaves the Illini fewer drives to work with. Illinois ranks 136th in red zone defense, allowing scores on 96.6% of trips. It gave up 37 in a 38-37 overtime win at Michigan State and 42 at Ohio State. Its last two games, a 21-10 win over Oregon and a 20-17 win at Maryland, finished with 31 and 37 combined points. Our bankroll needs the UNDER to land a little less than half the time to show a profit. The UNDER is the bet Friday night, with both clubs' latest finals pointing the same direction.