NC State at Stanford

Stanford beat Elon 34-7 last Saturday behind 279 passing yards from Davis Warren and 179 rushing yards from Micah Ford, and the Cardinal are 3-1 in their four home games. Stanford is 3-4 this season, while NC State's 3-3. Its defense has allowed 41.5 points per game to its six FBS opponents, and CJ Bailey has thrown for 1,507 yards through six games, so the Wolfpack will move the ball. NC State has also had 13 days since its last game, while Stanford is on six. The Wolfpack's 33 points per game for the season include a 73-0 win over Richmond. Without that game, they have scored 25 per game. The defense has allowed 27.7 per game across six games, with 38 to Wake Forest, 35 to Vanderbilt, 34 to Virginia, and 31 to both App State and Louisville. NC State lost both road games so far, 34-8 at Virginia and 35-31 at Vanderbilt. Its Louisville win at home was by three. Stanford beat Georgia Tech 34-27 at home in September, and Elon was a second home game in which the offense reached 34. Warren threw for 396 yards against the Yellow Jackets. Opponents can score on this Cardinal defense, but NC State's defense has been giving up points to teams with far less than Stanford's recent output. That keeps this game within one possession either way, and the Cardinal have a real shot at winning outright. Stanford is the right side here, and with an offense that has scored at least 34 in three of four home games, I don't expect the points to be needed.