Mississippi State at Texas

Texas beat Ole Miss 34-27 on October 24, and Ole Miss was the third straight opponent to score 27 on the Longhorns, after Florida and Oklahoma. Texas has allowed 134 points in seven games, 19.1 per game, so I give that three-game run more weight than the season rate. Mississippi State's offense scored 23, 0 and 15 in its last three games, all losses, after putting up 62, 38, 41 and 31 in its first four. Texas has scored 215 points in seven games, 30.7 per game. Mississippi State's defense has allowed 194 points, 27.7 per game, and Alabama, LSU and Oklahoma scored 56, 31 and 23 on it in the last three. Three of its seven opponents have scored 30 or more. That unit ranks 120th in passing yards allowed at 267.4 per game, and Texas finds yards against pass defenses like that. A Texas defense that has given up 27 three games running also gives the Bulldogs a way to score, and I expect both offenses to move the ball. I'm on the OVER.