Michigan at Purdue

Michigan came into the season having lost 17 starters and has been overvalued at 1-2 ATS. Overvalued on offense, anyway, as quarterback Wilton Speight is one of the few returning starters on an offense that has scored just one touchdown in 10 trips inside the 20-yard line. Wide receiver Tarik Black is out indefinitely with a broken foot. Michigan is 3-9 ATS on natural grass and 27-47 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points. Purdue came into the season with a pretty decent QB in David Blough and a talented up and coming new coach in Jeff Brohm. The Boilermakers have won back-to-back games for the first time since 2012 following a 35-3 victory at Missouri. QB Blough has thrown at least one touchdown pass in 15 straight games. Underdogs of 3.5 to 10 points with six or more total starters returning than their opponent are 60-26 ATS in the first month of the season. And the home team is 9-3-1 ATS between these Big 10 foes. Play Purdue.