Michigan State at Penn State

Michigan State upset the Nittany Lions 27-24 as a 9.5-point underdog in 2017 and the Spartans are an even bigger dog this year. However, MSU has covered four of the last five meetings and it'll be in a foul mood after losing at home to Northwestern as a 10.5-point favorite. Penn State had the week off after blowing a lead and losing to Ohio State mostly due to some horrific play calls the last few minutes of the game. The game went UNDER by 15.5 points as the Nittany Lions defense has settled down after an allowing 38 points to Appalachian State in overtime in the season opener. Penn State has given up an average of 16.8 points in the four games since. Even so, Michigan State allows 23.4 points per contest and is #28 in the country in yards allowed. The Spartans have covered seven of their last 10 when following an ATS loss and Penn State is 1-10-2 ATS its last 13 games after a loss. Also, the MSU defense responds well after a bad performance as the Spartans are 9-2 UNDER after allowing at least 280 passing yards. Look for the Spartans to keep this one close and lower-scoring. Take Michigan State and UNDER.