Michigan State at Iowa

Just like last season, Iowa is better than Michigan State on both sides of the ball. Yet the Spartans upset Iowa, 32-20, at home last year. This time, the game is in Iowa, but the Spartans are still a dangerous opponent for the Hawkeyes. Michigan State opened 3-0. Since then, the Spartans have gone 0-7. However, the Spartans have covered in five of the seven defeats. They are 4-0 ATS on the road this season with point spread covers against USC (a 45-31 loss at plus 19.5 points), Nebraska (38-27 at plus 11.5), Indiana (38-13 at plus 26), and Minnesota (23-20 in overtime at plus 3.5). Once again, the oddsmaker has misjudged the Spartans, making them too big a road underdog here. Michigan State's defense is showing improvement, its quarterback, Aidan Chiles, is a decent veteran, and Nick Marsh is one of the better wide receivers in the Big Ten. Iowa is deflated mentally following consecutive close losses to USC and Oregon. The Hawkeyes' offensive line also is banged up. Take Michigan State.