Michigan State at Indiana

This is a classic letdown spot for Indiana following its huge statement win over Oregon on the road. The Hoosiers were out to prove they could beat a highly-ranked team and they accomplished it, but don't be surprised if they come out flat in this game and it is asking a lot to cover a four-touchdown spread in this situation. Michigan State started 3-0, but it has lost three in a row playing tougher competition. The Spartans ran into a rejuvenated UCLA squad that had come off a huge upset win against Penn State. The visitor in this series has covered the spread the past seven meetings and Michigan State is 8-1 ATS its past nine off a straight-up favorite loss. The Spartans average 131.2 yards rushing to help control the clock and limit Indiana's possessions to stay within this huge number. Makhi Frazier has emerged as the No. 1 running back with 383 yards on 87 carries. QB Aiden Chiles has thrown for 1,019 yards and nine TDs with only three picks. Chiles is questionable with a head injury, but his backup Alessio Milivojevic actually has more passing yards the past two games than Chiles. Grab the big points with Michigan State.