Miami Florida at North Carolina

Miami beat Pittsburgh 52-23 last Saturday, and its defense has allowed 15.3 points a game, holding five of seven opponents to 20 or fewer. The two exceptions were Florida State with 35 in overtime and Pittsburgh with 23. The Hurricanes' own games have totaled 51, 84, 53, 55, 54, 78 and 75 points. Three of those, 84, 55 and 54, were blowouts where Miami alone scored 77, 52 and 41. North Carolina has scored 24 or fewer in four of its seven games, with 15, 20, 21 and 24. Billy Edwards Jr. has thrown 11 touchdowns against five interceptions and struggles under pressure, and Miami has 20 sacks, 15th most in the country. Bill Belichick said this week that North Carolina has settled for field goals too often after reaching inside the opponent's 10-yard line. Five of North Carolina's seven games finished with 48 combined points or fewer, including 38 at Pittsburgh and 44 at Duke. The two that went higher, 63 and 61, came against Notre Dame and Syracuse, who scored 37 and 31. Miami's offense gets its points either way, but I expect a Tar Heels offense that stalls inside the 10 and faces a 20-sack defense to keep this game low-scoring. Take the UNDER.