Mercyhurst at New Mexico State

I had the OVER on New Mexico State's opener last week against Florida State, and it missed by a couple of points in a loss, but the shape of that game is exactly why I'm going back to the well tonight. The Aggies' defense gave up 34 points to a quality opponent, confirming the same issue that showed up throughout a 4-8 season under Tony Sanchez, where the unit allowed nearly 28 points a game. Mercyhurst presents a far softer test than Florida State did. The program only recently moved up to the FCS level, and first-year head coach Thomas Sydeski, elevated after Ryan Riemedio's departure, is debuting against a jump in competition that many overmatched programs aren't ready for. Mercyhurst's own defense allowed nearly 25 points a game last season at a lower level than what it sees tonight, and New Mexico State's offense, modest as it's been, shouldn't have much trouble finding points against it. This is a defense with confirmed holes hosting a true road opener against a program still finding its footing at this level, and both factors point toward points piling up from both directions rather than a controlled night. The OVER is the play tonight, and this number looks light against two defenses I already have real questions about.