Memphis at Southern Miss

We see a large overlay in this one. Southern Miss has dominated this series going 11-4 SU and 13-2 ATS the past 15 years. But, the average spread in those games was Southern Miss by 5.5 points. Even in games played at home Southern Miss wasn't asked to lay anything near 16.5 points. The average home line was half of this number. It is difficult to ask a team that scores 26.9 ppg to cover a huge spread, especially when they are out-scoring their opponents by just 3 ppg on the season. Memphis is a team that can score. Their offense ranks #45 amongst all teams and at 27 ppg, should be able to put enough points up to cover this lofty spread. Southern Miss has had trouble with large spreads at home, because they have never been an offensive team, having covered a double-digit line just once in four years (total record: 1-6 ATS). Memphis has been just the opposite, as they have failed to cover as a double-digit dog on the road just once since November of 2001, and stand at 6-1 ATS in this role. With Tommy West as head coach, Memphis is 9-2 ATS on the road vs. winning teams. Southern Miss has just nine TD passes from their quarterbacks to 10 intercepts while Memphis stands at 21 TDs to 9 INTs. Memphis is going to be able to score enough to stay within the number here.