Louisville vs. Mississippi State

TAXSLAYER BOWL - This matchup brings together a pair of 8-4 teams. It has to be a disappointing season for Louisville. The Cardinals returned Heisman Trophy winner, Lamar jackson, and thought they could make a run toward a National Championship, but it was the usually reliable defense that set the team back this season. The offese eroded some, but the defense allowed a staggering 27 points per game on the season. Mississippi State lost their QB, but Louisville has little film on freshman replacement, Keytaon Thompson, so with a poor defense that could become a problem. The Miss St. defense is very good, allowing just 20 ppg to an SEC schedule. Bowl teams with poor defenses often get punished in Bowl games. A team allowing 27 points or more are just 44-64 in their Bowl game as a favorite, and overall to any line they win just 44.5% of the time. Make the play on Miss St. on the moneyline.