Kennesaw State at Missouri State

Missouri State’s defense has allowed at least 464 yards and 30 points in each of its four games against Texas A&M, Marshall, SMU, and Western Kentucky, for 37 points per game across them. Those opponents converted 31 of 56 third downs, and Kennesaw State converts 43% of its own, so drives keep going. Kennesaw just put up 410 yards and 26 points in a 27-26 loss to Jacksonville State, its best output against an FBS opponent this season. I had the OVER in that game last Wednesday, and it cashed. Kennesaw’s defense has given up at least 363 yards in each of its four FBS games, including 483 to Georgia State and 446 to Tennessee, and its four FBS opponents converted 22 of 49 third downs. Neither team has scored more than 26 points against FBS competition. Missouri State’s 506 yards against Marshall produced 24, and Kennesaw’s 332 against Georgia State produced 17. Take the OVER.