This pick was released to clients on January 10, 2022 at 4:28PM ET.
img CFB

Georgia vs. Alabama

January 10, 2022
img8:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
1 unit on Georgia -2 (-115) (risk 1 to return 1.87)
1 unit on 1st ½ Total UNDER 26.5 -105 (risk 1 to return 1.95)

CFP CHAMPIONSHIP - Alabama won the first meeting as an underdog, 41-24, handing Georgia their sole loss on the season. Can the Tide do it again? Sure the could, but it's a steep hill to climb a second time. Alabama went to a pass-heavy attack in the December 4th meeting to avoid the great Georgia defensive front, one stocked with NFL-caliber talent. The Tide ran it just 26 times for 115 yards while passing 44 times. However, this Georgia coaching staff under Kirby Smart is outstanding, and they will be prepared in the rematch. Let's not overlook the fact that Alabama's offensive line has been shaky many times this season, and they haven't exactly steamrolled their way to a 13-1 record, nipping Florida (31-29) as a 14-point favorite, topping LSU by just 6 (20-14) as a 29-point favorite, squeezing past Arkansas (42-35) as 21-point chalk, and Auburn (24-22) as a 20-point favorite in four OTs. Their luck ran out in a 41-38 loss to Texas A&M as a 19-point favorite, and even Auburn really had them beat, up 10-0 in the fourth. If the Auburn running back hadn't run out of bounds late to stop the clock, the Tigers probably would have won, 10-3. Regardless, Georgia deserves to be the favorite again with a boatload of talent and balance. Under Smart, the Bulldogs are 26-13 ATS vs. winning opponents. I expect the first-half to be a low-scoring one. Nerves will be high here for these young kids in the most important games of their lives. Alabama is 46-27 UNDER the first-half total against teams that allow 17 or fewer points per game while Georgia is 24-11 UNDER the first-half total as a neutral site favorite. The Bulldogs have incredible defensive talent. They are third in the nation in yards allowed, tops in points surrendered (9.64 per game), and the offense is eighth in the country in points scored (37.7 per game). Georgia hasn't been this short of a favorite in a while, winning the opener against Clemson, 10-3, as a small dog. The Bulldogs are 12-5 ATS at neutral sites, 26-13 ATS against winning teams, and 79-49 ATS away from home versus winning teams. Michigan has a terrific offensive line and ground attack, but Georgia allowed just 91 rushing yards (3.4 yards per carry) while forcing three turnovers in the last game. The Dawgs are also 52-33 ATS away from home against teams that outscore their opponents by 10+ points per contest. Plus, college football teams with a .800 or better winning percentage like Georgia that are revenging a loss to a winning opponent which scored 35+ points on them in the earlier meeting are 62-27 UNDER the first-half total. Play Georgia to cover the spread for the game and take the first-half UNDER the total.

Georgia Bulldogs img
Alabama Crimson Tide
consensus consensus
odds odds

Get my free CFB picks and predictions.

Join 423,013 Subscribers!