Florida State at North Carolina

Florida State's disappointing September is behind them as they are coming off of a 33-30 victory over Syracuse. As rough as the month was, they lost to Louisville by eight and Notre Dame by just three. The move to QB Jordan Travis has been a plus with 2 TDs and a pick in each of the last two games while RB Jashaun Corbin (506 yards) is averaging over eight yards per carry, and fellow back Treshaun Ward (285 yards) is averaging 7.7 yards per carry. North Carolina is a huge favorite, but they are 2-2 in the ACC, losing to Virginia Tech as a 6-point favorite and 45-22 to Georgia Tech as 22-point chalk! North Carolina is 2-10 ATS off a victory against a conference rival while coach Mack Brown is 12-3 UNDER the total at home against teams that average 200+ yards rushing. The underdog has covered five straight when these ACC rivals clash, and the road team is 6-1 ATS. With the last four meetings decided by three points or fewer, back the big dog in a game with more defense than oddsmakers anticipate. Play Florida State and UNDER the total.