Eastern Illinois at Minnesota

Minnesota closed out last season with an overtime win in the Rate Bowl, the kind of result that sends a program into the offseason with momentum, and P.J. Fleck brings that group home to open against an Eastern Illinois team that finished 3-9 in the FCS ranks a year ago. The gap in classification tells most of the story here. Eastern Illinois allowed nearly 30 points a game against a lower level of competition last season, and Minnesota's offense, which found enough juice to win in overtime against Big Ten opposition, isn't walking into a defense built to slow anything down. Games like this tend to follow a predictable shape: the home team scores in bunches early to put it away, then keeps the offense moving with backups working through the rotation, and neither phase protects the total. The betting market leans the same way, with the heavier money sitting on the OVER relative to the ticket count. Eastern Illinois managed under 18 points a game itself last year, but that cuts both ways against a jump in competition this steep, since Minnesota's defense won't need much to keep piling up stops while its offense keeps scoring. Take the OVER tonight.