East Carolina at Tulane

East Carolina has a streaky quarterback in Katin Houser and one of the best wide receivers in the American Athletic Conference, Anthony Smith. But it's the Pirates' defense, for the most part, that has been outstanding. If you discount the 34 points the Pirates surrendered to 18th-ranked BYU, they are allowing only 8.2 points to their four other opponents. East Carolina defeated Army, 28-6, in its last game. Army is averaging 30 points in its four other games. The Pirates have an elite run defense, ranking seventh in EPA/Rush. That matches up well with run-oriented Tulane. Jake Retzlaff has seven rushing scores, but the Tulane quarterback has completed just 54.4 percent of his passes, which ranks last among 11 qualified AAC quarterbacks in completion percentage. Overall, Tulane is 104th in passing and 84th in points scored per game at 26.2. The Green Wave held Tulsa to 14 points in their last game and had four sacks. East Carolina ranks 92nd in rushing. The Pirates are heavily reliant on Houser, who can be inconsistent and, sometimes, plagued by poor decision-making and turnovers. Take the UNDER.