East Carolina at Memphis

East Carolina went to overtime at UAB last Thursday and lost 30-17, and Memphis followed a night later by losing 31-17 at Tulane. Memphis is 5-2 to the Pirates' 3-3, and the Tigers have scored 35.4 points per game across their seven games. In the two losses, they got 20 points at Boise State and 17 at Tulane. East Carolina's three losses were 48-10 at Alabama, 27-24 to Appalachian State, and an overtime loss at UAB. Outside of the Alabama game, the Pirates haven't been run off the field. The defense has held three of its six opponents to 17 points or fewer: Old Dominion 17, North Carolina Central 9 and Rice 12. TJ Engleman Jr. has run for 129, 136 and 104 yards in the last three games, a steady ground game that gives the offense something to lean on when the passing game stalls. Memphis laid down 59 points on Charlotte, but a lopsided win over the American's weakest team says little about a conference game against a defense that gives up points slowly. East Carolina has the defense and the run game to stay within reach of a Memphis offense that has stalled in both losses. I'm taking the Pirates with the points.