Delaware at Western Kentucky

Delaware scored 61 points on Missouri State last Tuesday, but the Blue Hens still gave up 38. The defense that allowed those points is the one Western Kentucky sees tonight. Delaware allows 28.4 points per game, ranking 107th in the FBS, and its pass defense ranks eighth-worst in the country, allowing 270.3 yards per game. The Hilltoppers are 3-4, the same record as Delaware, and their offense scores 21.3 points per game, 112th nationally. That is the weak side of this pick, and it meets the softest defense it has faced in conference play. Delaware wins through the air, averaging 268 passing yards per game (31st in the FBS), but Western Kentucky's pass defense gives up only 190.9 yards per game (39th). Delaware's best unit meets Western Kentucky's best. The Hilltoppers also held Sam Houston to 3 points in a 16-3 road win on October 14. They beat these same Blue Hens 27-24 in Newark last October, and Delaware has to travel for the rematch. Western Kentucky's defense is better against the pass than Delaware's, and that matchup will decide this game. I'm backing the Hilltoppers to cover.