Cincinnati at Houston

Utah beat Cincinnati 49-25 on October 31 for the Bearcats' third loss of the season, and Houston lost 21-13 at Utah in its last game before the bye. Houston is 6-2 and Cincinnati is 5-3. Houston won 35-16 at Kansas State, where Cincinnati won 31-26 at home. Utah beat Cincinnati by 24 and Houston by 8. Texas Tech points the other way. Cincinnati beat the eighth-ranked Red Raiders 37-24, and Houston lost 28-26 at Texas Tech. Cincinnati's defense has allowed 29.3 points per game, including 45 at West Virginia and 49 to Utah. The Bearcats have scored 273 points in eight games, 34.1 per game, and I count at least 25 points in seven of them. Houston's wins over FBS teams have come by 13, 14, 10, 19 and 3, and its two FBS losses came by 2 and 8. No FBS opponent has lost to Houston by more than 19 this season. Cincinnati's offense has produced points against Boston College, Kansas State and Texas Tech, and that gives it a steady path to staying in this game. Our bankroll needs Cincinnati to cover a little more than half the time here, and I think a team scoring like this one gets there, so Cincinnati is the right side on the spread Saturday afternoon.