California at Louisville

California has been a Jekyll and Hyde team this season, starting with three wins and then getting shut out 34-0 at San Diego State as a 14-point favorite. The Golden Bears then came back to beat Boston College and later North Carolina, but they have lost their past two games. However, the Bears are getting too many points in this matchup, as Louisville is 0-5 ATS at home this year, while continually being overvalued, as the Cardinals are this week. Cal will need to lean on QB Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele as its running game has been nearly non-existent recently. Sagapolutele has thrown for 2,195 yards and 11 TDs, but with nine interceptions. The Bears are 6-2 ATS in their past eight games after totaling fewer than 275 yards in their previous game, and they can stay within this big number on Saturday. Take the points with California.