BYU at Air Force

This is a very dangerous spot for the Cougars who have a date next week with Utah who is unbeaten in the conference. BYU could move into a first place tie with a win in that one. They went through a four-game stretch notching back-to-back shutouts, allowing just 17 points, while scoring 158 themselves. Yet things have changed for them. After getting spanked by TCU 32-7, they have had close calls vs. some bad teams. They eeked out a 42-35 win vs UNLV at home, and went on the road and needed a come from behind win at Colorado State to win 45-42. Air Force is a tough defensive team that runs the triple option which can pose a unique threat in this game, especially if the Cougars have their mind on next week. The Falcons have won five in a row and have not lost a game this season by more than 7 points. The 7 point loss was to Utah, so make no mistake - this team hung in very tough against a team battling for a BCS Bowl berth. BYU has not looked like the same team that started the season for several weeks now. Air Force is even better than the team that dropped a 7-point decision to Utah. As a result, the points look very good here. Under head coach Troy Calhoun, this Falcons team is 8-1 ATS in home games and 12-2 ATS vs. conference opponents. I'm backing the Falcons, with a shot at the upset as well.