Buffalo at Miami Ohio

Buffalo has allowed 24 points or fewer in each of its last four games: 20 to Western Michigan, 8 at Toledo, 18 to UMass and 24 to Bowling Green. Both clubs come in 5-3 and 3-1 in the MAC, tied for second place. Burch ran for 137, 172 and 184 yards in the Bulls' last three games, and the offense still scores only 22.6 points a game, 106th in the FBS. Wright has been Buffalo's top passer in each of the last four games, but he hasn't reached 175 yards in any of them. That is the offense Miami's pass defense, seventh-worst in the FBS at 269.9 yards allowed per game, will face. On the ground, the RedHawks rank 15th-best, allowing 97.1 rushing yards a game, and the ground is where Buffalo does its work. Miami's own offense ranks 91st in rushing at 141.1 yards a game, so its drives have no easy way to eat clock and finish. At a minus price, our bankroll needs the UNDER to win a little more than half the time. Miami has scored 20 points in two of its four games with Caleb Heavner starting, which is why I make the UNDER my bet tonight.