Ball State at Massachusetts

Ball State has won two straight, 32-31 at Bowling Green in two overtimes and 34-17 over Sacramento State, scoring 33 points a game across them. UMass opened 4-0, then lost to Eastern Michigan 38-14, Miami (OH) 20-19, Buffalo 25-18 in overtime and UConn 35-16. The Minutemen scored 14, 19, 18 and 16 in those four games, an average of 16.8. UMass is 4-4 to Ball State's 3-5, and the Cardinals have won one of their five road games. Ball State's defense allows 422.9 yards per game, 126th in FBS. UMass ranks 115th in total offense at 334.6 yards per game, so I don't trust the unit that has to exploit that defense, which has stopped producing. UMass's defense is 36th in yards allowed at 324.1 per game, and Ball State's offense is 110th at 337.5. That points to a grind in which neither side pulls away. Ball State is 5-3 against the spread this season to UMass's 4-4. Our bankroll needs Ball State to cover only a little more than half the time. Take Ball State on the spread tonight, with a UMass offense that hasn't topped 19 points in over five weeks.