img CFB

Arizona at Washington State

November 8, 2008
img5:00 PM Eastern
Premium Pick
3 units on Washington State +41 (-110) (risk 3 to return 3)
Result:
WIN

After getting buried by Oregon State on the road by 53, followed by a loss to USC at home by 69, the Cougars lost last week on the road at Stanford 58-0. How can I possibly back a team this bad? Easy: buy low, sell high. The ugliest duckling of them all is usually the goose that lays the golden egg in sports wagering. This line opened at 39, and quickly soared to 41, as bettors look at this game like a gift. They are acting as if they know the final score before the game is even played. A home dog of over 40? No matter. Washington State can't score, right? The whole point is finding value and there is long term statistical evidence that has delivered at a very high rate of return in games like this. I'll buck the scoreboard past, for the scoreboard present, and go with the Cougars to stay within the ridiculous number. Let's not forget that Arizona is not a good play as a favorite as they are hitting just 35% ATS in that role in their last 81 games! This line, and the betting action, is not rational. The Cougars were 42.5 point underdogs at home to USC. This line says Arizona is the equal of USC? Think not. What we have here are the oddsmakers juicing the line (and getting bites). After the five straight SU and ATS losses in horrible fashion, no one wants to touch Washington State. Value Cougars.

1
2
3
4
T
Arizona Wildcats
14
21
10
14
59
Washington State Cougars
7
7
7
7
28
odds odds
 
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