Air Force at Nevada

Cody Fajardo has missed the last two games for Nevada with a knee injury, but is expected to play this week vs. Air Force. Sometimes when a QB misses a few games, he is tentative, and the timing on offense is a bit off. Air Force will also experience a shift at the QB position as Jaleel Awini has been suspended from the team. His backup, however, should be more than capable as Karson Roberts has seen action in the Falcons' last three games, throwing for a pair of TDs in spot duty. The Air Force defense has looked bad, but they have faced three teams with exceptional offenses in Utah State, Boise State and Wyoming. They should be a lot more competitive here. The good news is that the Air Force runs the ball about 80% of the time, and Nevada has not been able to stop anyone's ground attack. The Wolf Pack has allowed 243 rushing yards per game, at 6.53 yards per carry. This should allow Air Force to sustain a lot of clock-burning drives, which should shorten this game, and keep the Nevada defense on the field for a long time. Nevada has been a poor 7-16-1 ATS in their last 24 games. Coming off a win they are an even worse 2-10-1 ATS in their last 13. I think this is a one-possession game either way, so I will go with the points and make the play on the Air Force.