Bowling Green Falcons vs Iowa State Cyclones Point Spread Picks

Iowa State's defense ranks 32nd nationally in scoring, allowing 21.4 points per game, while Bowling Green has allowed 76 points in two games and lost its opener to Tarleton State, an FCS program. The Falcons will also be down two top receiving options, both questionable for this one, thinning out a passing game that already ranks among the worst in the country. Iowa State's own offense has been unspectacular, ranked 79th nationally after managing just 13 points in last week's loss to Iowa. But a moneyline bet needs a win, not a big number, and Bowling Green's defense has been shredded by competition nowhere close to Iowa State's level. Eastern Michigan enters with eleven players on the injury report, including starting quarterback Noah Kinsey, after getting outscored 35-7 by Michigan State last week. Wisconsin's own offense has been underwhelming, blown out 41-13 by Notre Dame before a modest 36-9 win over an FCS opponent. But Eastern Michigan has allowed 79 points across three games against Mid-American Conference-level competition, well short of Notre Dame's talent level, and a shorthanded group facing a downgrade in opposing quality doesn't need Wisconsin at its best to lose comfortably. New Mexico's undefeated record comes with an asterisk: the Lobos' 70-7 win over Mercyhurst was against a Division II program, and starting quarterback Jack Layne, healthy for both of those wins, suffered an elbow injury that will end his season, leaving New Mexico to turn to a backup or a committee under center against a Big 12 defense. Oklahoma's own offense has a real red flag after managing just 10 points in a loss to Michigan last week. That came against a much tougher defense than New Mexico faces tonight. A team replacing its starting quarterback for the rest of the season, on the road, is not the same team its box score says it is. I had the UNDER working in BYU's win over Arizona last week. It cashed comfortably, a game that fit the pattern of a Cougars team that wins through ball control rather than track-meet scoring: quarterback Bear Bachmeier threw for 217 yards and three touchdowns while LJ Martin added 98 yards on the ground in that 28-17 road win over a Power Conference opponent. Colorado State is also 2-0, but its wins came against Wyoming and an FCS opponent in Southern Utah, a different tier of competition than what BYU has already beaten on the road. BYU's defense will be without two starters, safety Raider Damuni and linebacker Siale Esera, but the group still ranks among the best in the country in points allowed per play, and Colorado State leans heavily on one running back that a defense this deep is built to take away. This is the closest matchup on the ticket, and BYU still looks like the better team by a clear margin. Laying any of these on its own is a bad trade: Iowa State and Wisconsin both sit at -1900, Oklahoma at -1567, and even BYU, the shortest price of the four, at -809. Stack all four into one ticket, and the number comes down to -308, and every leg needs to win, not cover. Iowa State doesn't need its offense to show up, Wisconsin doesn't need to blow the doors off a shorthanded team, Oklahoma doesn't need its passing game fixed against a backup quarterback, and BYU doesn't need this one to look easy.