There's a daily battle taking place between bettors and oddsmakers. Once the overnight odds appear, it's a 20-hour race to the ticket window. Oddsmakers construct the opening numbers through a combination of statistical analysis and intuition. Those lines will shift during the day as money trickles in. All the while, fans and handicappers are pouring through information and crunching database numbers. They're forming opinions on which odds are off before they walk to the betting counter. And if the deviation is large enough, they're running to the window to get down before the line adjusts. It's a constant cat-and-mouse game with real money on the line.
Why Use Tonight's Free College Basketball Picks
Information is the key for both oddsmakers and bettors. Computers can calculate a reasonable opening number, but that's not enough. The oddsmaker has to factor in relevant information that a computer can't, such as injuries, road travel, revenge, three games in three days, or homecoming, along with dozens of other elements. Some of that information is on the schedule, while other factors have to be unearthed. If a team has an emotional double-overtime victory at home over a rival, then has to take a long road trip two nights later, those details could negatively impact their performance both straight up and against the spread. Accumulating and weighing the importance is one reason to utilize tonight's free college basketball picks.
Betting Value in Tonight's Free College Basketball Picks
Oddsmakers and bettors are making judgments on what information is relevant and what factors can be ignored. For instance, teams that play double-overtime games and then head out on the road can respond very differently. A team that has a deep bench that was utilized in the overtime game may have seen their starters play the same amount of minutes as they normally do. Another team may only lean on six players to carry the load, so they are more likely to be out of gas. The judgment by the oddsmakers and the bettors can be very different. That means there will be enough variance in the line to provide wagering value for the bettor.
Wunderdog Tonight's Free College Basketball Picks
I have handicapping expertise that stretches back over two decades, along with an extensive database of coaches, players, power ratings, defensive rankings, and team stats. Weighing the importance of situations on the court is another aspect of successful handicapping. If you're new to the game, situations take time to learn but are not only fun to examine but profitable when used right. Situations help assess whether a team is in an optimal position to pull an upset or in a let-down spot for a variety of reasons. In one recent campaign, Ohio State had a two-game road trip, winning the first game in overtime at Nebraska, 87-79, with two starters playing over 40 minutes. The next game, just a few nights later, those two starters combined to shoot 8-of-25 in a 67-51 loss at Indiana.
Tonight's Free College Basketball Picks vs. Premium Picks
Tonight's NCAA College Basketball Picks Pros:
- Securing professional insight on your corner
- Streamlines the accurate and essential betting data for you
- Expands your knowledge of coaches, betting angles, situations, and line movement
Tonight's NCAA College Basketball Picks Cons:
- Not every service has past documented picks or up-to-date info
- Incomplete or confusing analysis or none offered at all
- Proceed with caution when encountering handicapping hype such as "Lock of the Year"
Premium Pick Pros:
- Will help expand your critical thinking on betting options
- With so many college basketball games you'll have less time to study
- Proper money management combined with the top plays maximizes long-term wagering gains
Premium Pick Cons:
- Line movement can be confusing or change the pick value
- Endless phone calls and texts from annoying salesmen
- Can restrain or remove the enjoyment you used to get following teams
How To Win With Tonight's Free College Basketball Picks
You increase your betting knowledge and chances of winning by partnering up with a documented, trusted, wagering pro. A good mix is doing handicapping work on your own time, examining games and matchups, along with incorporating the advice and picks of someone who's been studying odds for decades. I provide in-depth analysis on each play along with what percentage of your betting bankroll is necessary to keep playing and winning in the near and long-term future. It's all about identifying the wagering value to keep your betting confidence - and your profit margin - rising.
Tonight's Free College Basketball Picks Betting Strategy
Defensive Bounce Back
Teams that got roasted in the last game have two potential wagering strategies to look at in the next game. One is bounce-back. A team that got humiliated, especially one with a winning record, can come back with a strong all-around performance. Part of it is that players can't wait to get on the court and erase the embarrassing loss. Another is that maybe all the players had bad game shooting, which happens, and so a few - or all of them - are primed for an above-average effort. Another factor is defense. If a good or great defensive team comes off of a terrible defensive performance, it isn't likely to happen two games in a row. The coach will have pointed out the defensive lapses. One year, Baylor was a terrific defensive team but suffered its worst loss of the season in an 83-59 loss at Kansas. In the next game, Baylor won and covered at Kansas State, 75-60. In addition, the game sailed UNDER the total by double-digits as Baylor allowed 38.9% shooting as K-State was 5-of-18 from long range.
Situations
College basketball teams face all kinds of different situations each week. Some favor one team, such as a long home stand, and come working against them. One of the biggest upsets in college basketball history was when No. 1 ranked Virginia lost to Chaminade, 77-72. The game was played in Honolulu, Hawaii - Chaminade's home. That was a 4,690-mile road trip for Virginia. Think the road travel might have been a factor? Not to mention the home crowd cheering tiny Chaminade on. It was just another game for Virginia (which had 25 turnovers), while it was the most high-profile game of the season for Chaminade. When multiple situational factors come into play for one team that enhances the chances for a cover.
Moneyline Dogs and Defense
Moneyline is taking a team just to win the game, such as in baseball or hockey. Backing moneyline favorites means you're laying more money than you'll win, so a bettor should be very careful. Placing $400 on a minus-400 Moneyline favorite to win $100 may look reasonable before the game. But upsets happen all the time, especially in college basketball, and your bankroll can't absorb too many losses like that. Moneyline underdogs, however, are at plus money and can fatten your bankroll quickly. Home underdogs can offer value, along with great defensive teams that are likely to keep the game low-scoring and close. Mighty Michigan State won the Big 10 tournament in one recent season playing three games in three days. The last two victories were nailbiters over Maryland (64-61) and Purdue (66-62), two Top 20 teams. Five nights later, in the next game, 17-point underdog Middle Tennessee State never trailed, pulling a 90-81 upset of the Spartans, who were playing their fourth winner-take-all game in eight days. One bettor had $265 on MTS on the Moneyline that paid $5,300. Meanwhile, a teary-eyed Michigan State fan had put $150 on the Moneyline at minus-7,000 to win $2.15. Only he didn't win $2.15 - he lost $150. In another season, defensive-oriented Princeton was an underdog to UCLA. But with its back-door cuts on an offense that milked the possession clock and a choking defense, the Tigers kept it close all the way and upset the Bruins, 43-41, on the final possession.
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To find edges against the sportsbook odds, I spend the week digesting all the information, stats, matchups, and situations. My releases explain the reasons why this selection has an excellent chance to cover. You'll gain valuable insight into the game and how handicappers approach their craft. You can wager with me or simply read and digest all the information. Play alongside a seasoned professional bettor by signing up for my Free College Basketball Picks Subscription to enhance handicapping knowledge.
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