Portland Fire vs Washington Mystics Point Spread Picks

Washington is chasing a third straight win tonight and its fifth in six games, momentum that traces back to that four-overtime classic against Portland eighteen days ago. Strip away the record, though, and the offense behind it is thin. The Mystics rank thirteenth in the WNBA in offensive rating and sit second-to-last in three-point shooting at 29.4 percent, leaning almost entirely on a defense that ranks third in the league to keep games close. That formula got exposed Monday, when Golden State held Washington to 49 points. Portland has dropped five of its last seven and just lost at Connecticut on Tuesday, but I like a situational angle here: teams playing a third consecutive true road game have delivered value as moneyline dogs, and the Fire fit that trend as they walk into Washington. At this price, Portland does not need to win most nights to turn a profit. It needs to clear barely three times in ten, and a Mystics offense this inconsistent gives it a real shot. The market has this one wrong. Back the Fire on the moneyline tonight. 

Washington just turned in its worst offensive game of the season, a 68-57 loss in Connecticut where the Mystics scratched out 57 points against a team that walked in at 4-15. That's not a one-off, it's a flare-up of a problem that follows this team around. Washington shoots a middling clip and gives the ball away in bunches, and they've been beatable at home at 2-4. Now they're laid as a heavy favorite over Portland, and the number is doing too much work. The Fire are not good, and there's no reason to pretend otherwise. They've lost seven of nine and got run off the floor twice in Chicago this week. But a price this steep asks you to treat Washington like a sure thing at home, and a club that just managed 57 against the worst team in the league hasn't earned that. The sharp money sees it and has come to Portland. At these odds, the Fire don't need to win most nights, just more than three times in ten. The market has this one wrong. Take the Fire.