Phoenix Mercury vs Tulsa Shock Point Spread Picks

Defending champion Phoenix is still a handful. The team is on a 6-3 SU run, with great balance at #6 in the league in scoring, rebounds and assists, plus #4 in points allowed. Phoenix leaned on its defense last year to win the WNBA title and got off on the right foot the last game. After receiving the WNBA Defensive Player of the Year trophy prior to the game, Brittany Griner delivered 11 blocks -- a league playoff record -- along with 18 points and eight rebounds in just 24 minutes to lead the Mercury to an 88-55 rout Thursday over Tulsa. Griner led the league in blocks with 105. Phoenix's bench also delivered 32 points in extended action, allowing Griner and the other starters plenty of rest before game two. Phoenix is 6-2 ATS in its last eight Conference Semifinal games. They face a Tulsa team that seems to have run out of gas after a hot run, on a 2-3 SU, 1-3-1 ATS run. Tulsa is 3-8-1 ATS following a loss, and 4-11-1 ATS when following a spread loss. Phoenix hasn't lost a first-round playoff series since 2000 and is 10-1 in playoff series after winning the first game. Tulsa may be home but the Shock are 2-8-1 ATS when playing on one day of rest, so grab the confident champs and play on Phoenix.

Tulsa heads out on the road for this playoff series. You need defense this time of the season and Tulsa doesn't have it at #10 in the WNBA in points allowed, and second-worst in field goal shooting defense. The offense is fine, but would be better if they had Skylar Diggins, whose season-ending knee injury knocked the Shock for a loop. They face a Phoenix team that is 13-4 at home. Phoenix is used to winning, in the playoffs for the sixth time in the past seven seasons, and finished with the second-best record in the Western Conference, as well as third-best in the league. Brittney Griner averaged 8.1 rebounds and is a force in the low post. Phoenix won the WNBA title last year and is 5-2 against the spread in their last seven Conference Semifinals games. The Mercury are 10-1 straight-up against Tulsa at home since 2010. With the Tulsa Shock just 1-3-2 ATS in the last six meetings at Phoenix, grab the champs at home. 

Tulsa is great at home while Phoenix is in town with a losing road mark. This is the fifth road game over the last seven contests for Phoenix. The Mercury are on a 1-6 ATS run on the road, 1-4 ATS playing on one day of rest, as well as 1-4-1 ATS following a win. Tulsa is home and trying to reward their current fans by securing the only winning season in their time in Oklahoma. The Shock will be moving to the Dallas-Fort Worth area next season, but have won their last five home games, beginning with a 74-59 victory over Phoenix on August 18. Tulsa is 4-0-1 ATS at home and on a 6-2-1 ATS run overall. Tulsa is also 3-1-1 ATS against the Western Conference, and when these foes clash the Mercury are just 1-7 ATS in the last eight meetings in Tulsa. Play Tulsa.

Tulsa is a home dog but are home from a stretch playing four of five away. They ended the trip in a strong way, knocking off Eastern Conference-leading New York, 81-76, as a +8 dog. Odyssey Sims had 27 points and seven assists and Riquna Williams added 15 points. Tulsa is third in the WNBA in points and rebounds. Tulsa is 7-3 ATS after a victory, 9-3 ATS following a spread cover and 6-2-1 ATS when playing on two days of rest. The Shock plays its third home game since the July 23 announcement that WNBA owners unanimously approved the plan to relocate the franchise. Fans have been wearing "Save Our Shock" shirts since. They face a Phoenix team with a losing road mark on a 3-7 ATS run. Phoenix is off a loss, losing two of the last three, and is on a 3-9 ATS run. The Mercury are on a 2-6 ATS run on the road and 1-6 ATS here at Tulsa, so grab the super-motivated home dog and take the points Tulsa.

Phoenix (2-9 ATS run) has a losing road record while Tulsa is 6-2 at home. This is the second road game in three contests for Phoenix, in the middle of a stretch playing three of four away. In their last road game the Mercury was a 4-point favorite at L.A. and lost straight-up 70-65. Phoenix is off a tough game, beating Chicago in overtime just two nights ago, so this is a quick turnaround on the road. Phoenix is 3-7 ATS following a win, 1-4 ATS on the road and 2-6 ATS vs. the Western Conference. Meanwhile, Tulsa is home and rested, with the Shock 5-1 ATS playing on three or more days rest. Tulsa is second in the WNBA in scoring and rebounding, and plays its third straight home game, hungry for a win. There is more motivation for the home team, too as owner Bill Cameron announced his intentions to relocate the Shock to the Dallas-Fort Worth area after the season. This will be the Shock's first game since the announcement after the league took time off for Saturday's All-Star Game. The Shock didn't qualify for the playoffs in their first five seasons in Tulsa, but are two wins shy of matching last year's squad for the most victories since the franchise relocated from Detroit following the 2009 season. The Mercury are 0-6 ATS in the last six meetings in Tulsa and this is a great spot for a straight-up win by the hungry home team. Take Tulsa on the moneyline.