Phoenix Mercury vs Toronto Tempo Point Spread Picks

Toronto played in Las Vegas last night and is right back on the road tonight with zero rest, catching a Phoenix team that last played Thursday and has a full day off in between. That kind of turnaround usually shows up on the scoreboard, and both of these clubs already have the scoring profile for it: Toronto is averaging 87 points a game, and Phoenix isn't far behind at just under 84. Both teams are well outside playoff position, and neither has had much incentive to grind out possessions defensively down the stretch of a lost season. This is exactly the profile I look for: one team on a true back-to-back, the other fully rested, and a total posted as if tonight were a normal night for both. A tired Tempo team playing fast against a Mercury team that hasn't been shutting anyone down is the kind of matchup where the posted total gets tested early and stays under pressure all night. This spot has more going for it than either side of the game itself, and it's the best number on the board for a two-unit play. The OVER is the bet tonight, and I don't expect this one to be particularly close.

Phoenix is 2-2 straight up and ATS following its 91-83 win over Chicago on Friday when Jovana Nogic scored 27 points to set a WNBA record for points in a single game by an undrafted rookie. The Mercury also hit 37 of 41 free throws. Toronto has split its first four games, but this will be its toughest test as the Tempo's opponents have a 4-8 win-loss record thus far. Toronto is shooting just 40.7 percent from the field and 33.3 percent from 3-point range. The Tempo is 10th in the league in 3-point attempts with 24.0 per game. Take the Mercury ATS and bet the UNDER.