Phoenix Mercury vs Seattle Storm Point Spread Picks

We were on Seattle plus the points Saturday against Atlanta, and the Storm delivered in a big way, controlling that game from the opening tip in a 105-90 win that snapped an eleven-game skid. Seattle carries that momentum into Phoenix, but tonight's angle isn't about who wins. It's about how few possessions either team can turn into points. The Mercury are without Monique Akoa Makani, Natasha Mack, and Jovana Nogić, leaning hard on Kahleah Copper and Alyssa Thomas to create offense against a set defense, and Thomas remains one of the league's most disruptive defenders even while shouldering more of the scoring load than usual. Seattle has its own depth problems, still missing Jordan Horston and Taina Mair, with Ezi Magbegor only just beginning to work her way back into full practice. Two shorthanded rosters, each leaning on two or three players, tend to slow a game down, whatever the recent scoreboard says. My money is on the total staying under the posted number tonight. Take the UNDER.

Phoenix has lost six straight games and sits at 2-8 on the season, a stretch that goes beyond cold variance and points to something genuinely broken in that roster. The Mercury have not been close in those losses — this is a team in full dysfunction regardless of opponent or circumstance. Ezi Magbegor’s absence hurts Seattle, no question, and the Storm have had their own struggles this season. This pick is built entirely on what Phoenix isn’t, not what Seattle is. At that record, Phoenix is still being priced as a road favorite, and that number no longer reflects what’s happening on the court. Seattle doesn’t need to be a great team tonight — just good enough against a Mercury squad that clearly isn’t. At this price, the value is on the Storm. Take Seattle on the moneyline. 

Seattle is fourth in the league in points allowed, while the offense ranks fourth in field goal shooting percentage (46%). They've covered two straight on the road, including a 79-71 win at Dallas. Seattle shut down Phoenix when they met last month, winning 77-70 and covering the spread. They come off an 83-77 victory over Dallas, shooting 48.4% while getting 30 points from the bench. Phoenix has a slew of injuries. Starters Kahleah Copper (left knee) and Alyssa Thomas (15.2 ppg, 7.2 rpg) are out, along with forward Natasha Mack (back) and guard Megan McConnell (knee). They're 10th in the WNBA in scoring. Play Seattle.