Washington at New York

The question tonight is not whether the New York Liberty win — it's whether they win by 13 or more. Those are two very different propositions. New York sits at 9-4, first in the East, playing at home. All of that is real. But 12.5 points asks the Liberty to deliver a performance at the outer edge of what they have shown this season. Their largest recent margin was 14 points over Atlanta on Friday, and that game was not decided until the fourth quarter despite New York shooting 51 percent from three. Games do not repeat themselves that cleanly. Washington, meanwhile, just earned a road win in Toronto last night — 86-85 — with a confident, physical performance built around 54 points in the paint and Lauren Betts going 8-for-9 from the field. The Mystics are not a pushover at 5-6. They are a team that stays in games and makes opponents earn every bucket. The Liberty's defensive rating of 104.2 puts them in the middle of the league, meaning Washington can score, and they proved last night they absolutely will. New York coughed up 20 turnovers in their last outing. Washington's defense generated eight steals last night and turned Toronto's mistakes into 14 points. That pressure travels. Covering a number this large requires sustained dominance — quarter after quarter, no letdowns, no offense getting comfortable — and the Mystics have every tool to prevent it. Play Washington and the points tonight.