Washington at Atlanta

Washington closed the regular season on a four-game winning streak, including a 93-77 win in Indiana, and went 8-2 over its last ten. Atlanta was even hotter, winning its last five and nine of its last ten on the way to a 30-14 record, two games ahead of Washington's 28-16. The Mystics took two of the three regular-season meetings, 81-76 in July and 79-74 in August, both at home. Atlanta's only win was a 109-77 blowout in June, and that's the version of this matchup the number is priced on. Washington ranks 12th in scoring and wins its games on the glass. The Mystics lead the league with 37.7 rebounds per game, and they went 12-5 in games decided by five points or fewer. Atlanta went 5-6 in those games. Ball security is the strongest fact against this pick. Washington commits a league-high 14.7 turnovers per game, and Atlanta leads the WNBA in steals. That flaw was there in both of Washington's wins over the Dream as well, and it didn't stop the Mystics from keeping those games within a possession or two late. Back Washington on the spread tonight.