Washington at Atlanta

Atlanta stumbled in their last outing, dropping a 12-point decision at Indiana as the road limitations showed. Back home is a different story — the Dream are 3-1 at Gateway Center — and they bring the league's second-best defense, holding opponents to 79.6 points per game. What they don't bring is a dominant offense; Atlanta ranks 11th out of 14 teams in scoring efficiency, which means their wins come by limiting, not overwhelming. Washington's interior is real — Shakira Austin and Kiki Iriafen combined for 32 points and 19 rebounds to dismantle Chicago in their last outing — and that frontcourt doesn't get bullied out of games. The Mystics got blown out in Dallas, and that performance is what inflated this number to 11. That's too many points to surrender to a team whose own offense keeps games tight. Give Washington the points tonight. Take the Mystics.