Toronto at Minnesota

Toronto has been on the wrong end of blowouts three straight games, falling by 17 to Washington, 19 to Atlanta, and 26 to Las Vegas last time out, so I won't dress up what kind of stretch this is. But look at what Minnesota has actually done to teams even worse than the Tempo. The Lynx have won seven straight, and in the four most recent of those, none covered a number anywhere close to 15.5: nine over the Sparks, eight over Portland, three in overtime-level basketball against Seattle, then ten over that same Seattle club in the second meeting of the set. Seattle is a 6-23 team, worse on paper than Toronto, and Minnesota still couldn't clear this exact number against them twice in a row. Minnesota's beatdowns tend to happen against teams that fold completely, and Toronto, even on a bad run, hasn't shown that kind of total collapse against a legitimate contender the way its last three losses might suggest at first glance. This market is pricing in the recent trend more than what Minnesota's own margin of victory has actually looked like lately. Take Toronto to cover.