Toronto at Golden State

We backed Toronto plus a big number against Minnesota five days ago, and it worked with room to spare, the Tempo losing by seven and covering the 16 comfortably. Toronto's now dropped five straight since and sits 10-18 on the season, and tonight's trip to Chase Center looks like the toughest stop yet: Golden State leads the WNBA in defense, holding opponents to 76.9 points a game and 42.5 percent shooting, and the Valkyries are 8-2 in their last 10 with a home crowd behind them. Golden State has earned that price against most of the league. But these two already met once, on July 8 in Toronto, and Golden State needed a 26-16 fourth quarter just to escape with an eight-point win. Tonight's number is well above that actual margin. Marina Mabrey has been the engine keeping Toronto in games regardless of the final score, averaging 21.9 points a night over her last seven, and even with Isabelle Harrison day-to-day after torching Golden State for 24 in the first meeting, Toronto has enough shot-making to stay inside a number this size. Back Toronto on the spread tonight.