Toronto at Atlanta

Atlanta's back-to-back wins over Indiana have pushed this total to a number that requires both offenses to stay hot. What the Dream's recent scoring output doesn't account for is how it was built: Indiana turned the ball over 19 times in Saturday's game, turning Atlanta's defense into a fast-break engine that inflated the final score well past what any half-court game would produce. Toronto plays more disciplined ball. The Tempo's offense is volatile — Marina Mabrey went 9 of 12 from three in Thursday's win at Connecticut, a shooting performance that isn't repeatable night to night — and against Atlanta's length and defensive rotation featuring Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray, the Tempo are unlikely to approach 90. Atlanta will score, but doesn't replicate a 46-percent three-point clip without the same turnover windfall. Strip out last week's variance, and both offenses have realistic ceilings below the posted total. Back the UNDER tonight.