Toronto at Atlanta

Toronto is buried in an eight-game losing streak, the longest run of the franchise's debut season, and Atlanta has already handled this series three times by a wide margin. What's kept Toronto's losses from getting truly ugly is the same thing that's kept Atlanta from putting teams away: neither club can stop anybody right now. The Tempo have allowed at least 92 points in seven straight games, a number that's held even as the losses have piled up, and Atlanta just dropped two of three following a five-game winning streak, including Friday's 79-74 loss to Washington, because complete defensive efforts have been the season-long issue for a team that's otherwise comfortably in the postseason picture. Two offenses that can score paired with two defenses that can't stop anyone is why my model likes the total tonight. That same porous Toronto defense is exactly why the number stays inflated even in a loss: these games have stayed on the scoreboard, not in the mud, and a team that keeps finding buckets late is a team that keeps games within striking distance of a generous number. Allisha Gray and Jordin Canada will get theirs for Atlanta, but Toronto's offense has shown it can keep pace possession for possession even while losing outright. We're on Toronto with the points tonight, and the OVER anchors this ticket.