Seattle at Portland

Portland has been a coin flip all season, with a one-point win over Dallas sandwiched between a 33-point blowout loss to Minnesota. The Fire sits at 7-9 with a middling offense that scores about 81 a night. Tonight, they host a Seattle team carrying the worst record in the West, which is exactly why this number looks light. The Storm defends better than their record suggests, holding opponents to roughly 80 points per game and ranking among the league's top five, and Portland's backcourt is thin, with Holly Winterburn and Karlie Samuelson both questionable. A short favorite that wins ugly, now down ball-handlers, against a team built to slow you down and muck it up. That's a recipe for a one-possession game, not a comfortable cover. Laying more than a field goal here asks Portland to control a game it hasn't controlled all year. Seattle has the defense to keep this within a possession late. Side with Seattle and take the points on the road tonight.