Seattle at New York

Seattle is stuck in the middle of an eight-game skid, but two nights ago in Atlanta the Storm did what they have done through most of it: kept the number in reach. We backed Seattle at a big number that night, and even in a 98-89 loss, the plus-13 never came close to sweating. New York is walking straight into tonight off back-to-back true road trips through Las Vegas and Phoenix, and heavy home favorites fresh off a stretch like that have been a soft number in recent seasons, free possessions and second-half letdowns piling up against teams still catching their legs. The Liberty are also down two rotation pieces that matter tonight, Satou Sabally still working through concussion protocol and Leonie Fiebich sidelined with a foot injury, thinning a group that already leans hard on Ionescu and Stewart to create offense. Seattle's own numbers back this up better than 6-25 suggests: the Storm have covered seven of their last ten games, losing outright in nine of them. That is a team that shows up inside the number even while losing games outright, and against a Liberty group breaking in a different look at home, plus-9.5 is a full number to work with. Seattle is the play on the spread tonight.