Seattle at Las Vegas

I had the OVER three days ago when these two teams met and it wasn't particularly close, Las Vegas alone put up more than half the total by itself in a 114-77 win. Nothing about tonight's rematch points to a different shape. Seattle is playing the second night of a back-to-back, its third game in four days, and Sonia Raman is down four rotation pieces with Zia Cooke, Jordan Horston, Ezi Magbegor and Katie Lou Samuelson all out. Las Vegas is riding a four-game winning streak with the fourth-best offense in the league, and a tired, shorthanded defense that's already surrendering 87 points a night on a normal day is not the group that slows this down. Seattle was held to 57 points last night against Golden State's defense, the best in basketball by a wide margin. Las Vegas isn't playing that kind of defense, it's playing to score, and this Aces team doesn't need much scoring help from Seattle to keep this on pace for the OVER. Vegas has the pieces to make this one ugly by halftime, and the OVER is my play tonight.