Seattle at Atlanta

Own this up front: Seattle is 6-24, second-worst record in the league, while Atlanta sits second in the East at 17-10, and nothing about that gap is close. But this is a spread bet, not a moneyline, and the number matters more than the win column. These two have already met twice this season, and the most recent meeting on July 10 went to Atlanta by 11, 89-78 — closer than tonight's spread. The Dream have gone just 5-5 over their last ten games, nowhere near the blowout machine their overall record suggests, and their own defense is allowing 85.1 points a night, hardly stingy. Respected money is already loading up on Seattle here, a lopsided ticket-to-dollar split that shows up far more often on live underdogs than lost causes. Seattle has been outmatched all year, but 13.5 points is a lot to lay against a team that lost by just 11 the last time these two shared a floor. Side with Seattle on the spread tonight.