Portland at Washington

Washington just turned in its worst offensive game of the season, a 68-57 loss in Connecticut where the Mystics scratched out 57 points against a team that walked in at 4-15. That's not a one-off, it's a flare-up of a problem that follows this team around. Washington shoots a middling clip and gives the ball away in bunches, and they've been beatable at home at 2-4. Now they're laid as a heavy favorite over Portland, and the number is doing too much work. The Fire are not good, and there's no reason to pretend otherwise. They've lost seven of nine and got run off the floor twice in Chicago this week. But a price this steep asks you to treat Washington like a sure thing at home, and a club that just managed 57 against the worst team in the league hasn't earned that. The sharp money sees it and has come to Portland. At these odds, the Fire don't need to win most nights, just more than three times in ten. The market has this one wrong. Take the Fire.