Portland at Atlanta

We were on Portland plus the points Thursday against Las Vegas, and the Fire delivered again, covering comfortably in an 88-80 loss despite 17 turnovers that gifted the Aces extra empty-possession chances. That turnover issue is a real concern against an Atlanta team that just snapped a five-game skid by forcing 21 giveaways and scoring 28 points off them in Thursday's win over Seattle. But this is a beat-up Atlanta squad working through its own issues. Brionna Jones remains out at center, and now Angel Reese is questionable herself after tweaking her leg late in that same Seattle win. A depleted Dream frontcourt facing a Portland team that has already covered a number this size once this week is a spot the market hasn't fully priced. The sharp money has already found its way to the Fire side tonight. Portland doesn't need to be competitive for three quarters; it just needs to avoid the kind of complete collapse a full-strength Atlanta could inflict, and a hobbled Reese makes that less likely. This number gives real room to work with, more than the market seems to think. I like Portland well beyond just staying in the game here. Take the Fire with the double-digit cushion this afternoon.