Phoenix at Las Vegas

A'ja Wilson made her return look effortless Thursday, dropping 32 points and 10 rebounds in her first game back from a three-game injury absence, and that's the version of Las Vegas Phoenix has to solve tonight. The two teams have already split a pair of meetings this season, including a stunning 99-66 Mercury win to open the year, so Phoenix knows this Vegas roster can be had on the right night. DeWanna Bonner became just the third player in WNBA history to reach 8,000 career points this week, a reminder that even a rebuilding 8-15 Phoenix squad still has professionals capable of keeping a game from getting away. There's also a situational trend working in Phoenix's favor: teams that jump from a favorite one night into a big underdog price the next have found real value catching that number. At double digits, Phoenix doesn't have to be competitive for forty minutes, just competitive enough to keep this inside the number Wilson's big night has inflated. The market has moved fast off one huge individual performance, and numbers built on one game tend to overcorrect. I like the value on the Mercury well beyond just surviving here. Take Phoenix with the double-digit cushion tonight.