Phoenix at Indiana

Indiana beat Phoenix 86-77 in this same building Monday night, dominating the middle quarters so thoroughly that the Fever were up 21 at one point — yet the spread lands right at that margin, and there's a reasonable case Phoenix keeps this one closer in the rematch. Kahleah Copper scored 20, Alyssa Thomas put up 19 with nine assists, and Phoenix actually led by 13 after the first quarter before Indiana took over. What broke them down was the three-point line: Phoenix went 5-for-25 from distance (20 percent), and that's not a repeatable number. Indiana is a solid 10-7 squad, but they're not a team that consistently covers large numbers, and Phoenix has enough scoring punch to be competitive even on the road. The sharp side of the market has found its way to Phoenix here, confirmation that professional eyes see value on this side. The same logic that points toward a close game supports the total: Monday's final was 163; both teams shot poorly from deep; and a grinding road rematch between these two doesn't feel like a high-scoring night from either side. Play the Mercury on the spread and take the UNDER.