Phoenix at Golden State

When Golden State beat Phoenix by 16 back in May, the Mercury were without Monique Akoa Makani — their starting point guard and the defensive backbone of their perimeter scheme. Akoa Makani has since returned after finishing her season in France, and the Phoenix that travels tonight is a different unit from the one that absorbed that early blowout. The Valkyries are a legitimate team — Veronica Burton leads a balanced attack, their net rating ranks second in the WNBA, and they rank second in offensive rating and third defensively — but they are also coming off back-to-back losses to Minnesota and Las Vegas, games where they couldn't put quality opponents away. A spread this large requires sustained dominance over 40 minutes, and Golden State hasn't shown that against the league's better competition. Phoenix just won back-to-back road games and is getting healthier. The number doesn't account for how much this roster has changed since the first meeting. Phoenix is the play on the spread.